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condition in the operation of the Malthusian principle. That condition is, the state of the industrial arts remaining the same, population tends to press upon subsistence. During the 19th century, the industrial arts did not remain the same. The result was that the acute pressure of population upon subsistence was suspended for the time being. As more mouths appeared to be fed, the wheat fields of South America appeared to feed them. As more bodies demanded to be clothed, the wool of Australia and the cotton of America were offered for clothing. The industrial revolution multiplied the numbers that could be supported on the island. But if the industrial arts reach a standstill, and population goes on increasing, the day of reckoning between population and subsistence approaches. One important factor which has diminished pressure of population on the means of subsistence has been the progressive improvement in production technology. Malthus lived when the industrial revolution was hardly in its infancy. If prophets had told him that England would some day support five times as great a population in better comfort, he would have scoffed at the suggestion as preposterous. But his failure to foresee the marvels of science and invention does not vitiate his doctrines. In this particular respect we may amend his doctrines, place a greater emphasis upon the importance of the state of the industrial arts, but recognize at the same time that no matter what improvements are made in the industrial arts, the specter of population always stands at the door threatening to encroach upon the means of subsistence. Inventors, scientists, and engineers may fight back the encroachment, and indeed it is only their sturdy and valiant effort which for the past century has enabled population to grow without dragging society down to the meaner levels of existence.

If we inquire why the means of subsistence cannot increase indefinitely, we have only to turn to the law of diminishing returns for our answer. Here again, Malthus did not foresee the developments of the coming century. He was thinking of England as primarily at self-feeding island. The food consumed there would have to be grown there. And under that assumption, the law of diminishing returns applied quickly and surely. But the assumption was wrong, for the source of food supply rapidly shifted to the fertile fields of foreign countries. England came to import most of her food. But the stage is now being reached where all of these virgin territories of the new world are themselves reaching the point of diminishing returns. Barring some marvelous new developments in agriculture, these rich soils will show diminishing returns in the future. Population will tend to outrun food supply. The pressure upon subsistence will threaten the comfort of the masses.

The joint influence of the state of the industrial arts and the law of diminishing returns determines the ratio between population and subsistence. A glance at the recent history of population should show that the specter of over-population is by no means eliminated. In

the year 1000, the population of all Europe probably did not exceed 10,000,000. When Columbus discovered America, the population of Europe probably did not exceed 50,000,000. In 1800, the population of Europe was estimated at 200,000,000 and in 1920 at nearly 500,000,000. The population of the whole world a century ago was about 800,000,000, whereas to-day it is more than 1,700,000,000. During the many centuries of man's existence down to 1820, his numbers had increased only to eight hundred million, and then in another century, he increased his numbers to more than double that amount. Surely here was a tendency of population to increase and to increase speedily. No one could say in light of these developments that the reproductive capacity of the race was a slight one.

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See Harold Cox, The Problem of Population, p. 8.

(a) Preliminary estimate, National Bureau of Economic Research.

The population increase is a function of two variables, the birth rate and the death rate. The survival rate gives the net increase of population, i.e., the difference between births and deaths. The data above and on the following page on these variables are indicative of the popu lation trends. The above table shows the declining rate of increase in the population of the United States. The figures include immigration, so that the rates are not strictly a measure of population increase due to domestic birth and death rates. In spite of this allowance, however, the decreasing rate of increase remains an undoubted fact. A similar tendency is also noted for leading European countries.

Although the rate of increase is diminishing, nevertheless it remains a very material rate in most countries. The birth rate has fallen, but the death rate has also fallen. If both fall in like proportion, the rate of net increase is unabated. Modern medicine and sanitation have decreased the death rate. Modern surgery and hospitalization, the progress of medical science, the improvement of medical education, have cut down the death rate remarkably. This cut in the death rate nearly matches the decline in the birth rate.

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Ibid., Chapter 1, and E. M. East, Mankind at the Crossroads, Chapters VIII-IX. National Bureau of Economic Research estimates in 1924 placed births per 1000 of population at 23.3 and deaths per 1000 at 11.7 for the United States.

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* See E. B. Reuter, Population Problems, p. 146, and E. M. East, op. cit., p. 267.

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The causes for the decline of the birth rate are numerous. general, we find in the United States that the more important factors influencing birth rates are as follows:

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a. Foreign-born families in America tend to have larger families than native stock.

b. Negro families tend to have larger families than white families.

c. People living in rural communities tend to have larger families than those living in urban communities.

d. People of little or no education tend to have larger families than those of higher education.

e. People of little means tend to have larger families than the well-to-do. f. People of low standard of living tend to have larger families than people of high standard of living.

g. People having knowledge of birth control tend to have smaller families than those not having such knowledge.

In general, we may observe that the influences which tend to lower the birth rate are Americanization of aliens, concentration of population in the cities, democratization of higher education, increase in 16 The following statistical data bearing upon these conclusions are significant: DENSITY OF POPULATION

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PER CENT OF TOTAL POPULATION OF THE UNITED STATES LIVING IN TOWNS AND CITIES

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PER CENT OF TOTAL GAINFULLY EMPLOYED IN THE UNITED STATES ENGAGED IN

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per capita income, elevation of standards of living, and dissemination. of knowledge of birth control. The preventive checks upon population increase are becoming more and more effective. Malthus never dreamed that birth rates would decline to their present level. If death rates had not also declined, the race suicide of which Theodore Roosevelt and others prophesied, might have occurred. As matters now stand, the imminent danger is more from over-population than from race suicide.

The annual increase in total world population has been estimated at from 12,000,000 to 20,000,000, or a rate of net increase of from 0.7 per cent to 1.16 per cent annually." The average rate of annual increase in the United States from 1909 to 1924 was 1.55 per cent, or a yearly total of 1,560,000.

Problems in Population.-The economic problems arising from population increase affect every phase of economic life. Certain salient problems are here singled out for treatment, but these are by no means the only important problems in this field.

(1) When a nation reaches the point where further increase in population must lower the standard of living, it would seem to be desirable that thereafter population should become stationary. Dublin estimates that at present birth and death rates, it would be necessary for the average family to have at least 3.1 children, if a stationary population were to be maintained." Some classes are already below that average, and some are above it. If the state of the industrial arts becomes stationary, and the law of diminishing returns sets in, the time has come for a country seriously to consider the necessity for maintaining an approximately stationary population.

(2) It has been suggested that a population should become stationary when the point of saturation has been reached. The point of saturation may be defined as that stage beyond which additions to population will lower the standards of living. Pearl has estimated for the United States a population of 150,000,000 in 1952 and of 197,000,000 by the end of the century.19 The latter figure is probably the saturation point under present standards of living and productive efficiency. The United States Department of Agriculture has estimated the point of saturation in the United States at 300,000,000, but this estimate is based on the pre-war German standard of living rather than upon the present American standard.20

(3) Some students have propounded a law of optimum numbers for each country. A. M. Carr-Saunders states this law as follows: "There will be, taking into account on the one hand the known arts of production and on the other hand the habits and so on of any people at any one time in any given area, a certain density of population which will be the most desirable from the point of view of return per head of popu17 See East, op. cit., p. 67.

18 Journal of the American Statistical Association, March, 1925.

19 Raymond Pearl, Proceedings of the National Academy of Science, VI, pp. 275-286.

20 Year Book of the United States Department of Agriculture, 1923, p. 500.

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