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VI.

THE QUESTION OF THE AGE-IS IT PEACE?*

(Macmillan's Magazine, May, 1860.)

HAS Europe, at the point of civilization which it has reached, passed beyond the military stage of social progress, so that a disappearance of war is already before us in political prospect ? This question raises, as will be seen, some collateral inquiries of practical and immediate moment; but, apart from the temporary interest and light which they may afford, the investigation is, at bottom, one of a philosophical character.

There is a matter of fact to be decided at the beginning. For an obvious, if not altogether conclusive, indication of the exorcism of the ancient combative spirit, and of the pacific structure and temper of modern civilization, would be a comparative infrequency in our own times of international quarrels and intestine conflicts and disquietude. A great predominance of peaceful interests and tendencies might naturally be expected to bear fruit and witness both in the foreign relations, and in the internal condition of the states of Europe. And it is in fact asserted that there has been, beyond all controversy, a steady decline in the frequency of war in each successive century of modern history; a sigual example of which is, as it is alleged, afforded by the repose of Europe, and of this country in particular,† during the interval between 1815 and the commence

The reader is requested to bear in mind that this Essay was written nineteen years ago, being the author's first published Essay. Its main principles and conclusions he however still adheres to, though not to every sentence or expression.

That this barbarous pursuit is in the progress of society steadily declining, must be evident even to the most superficial reader of European

ment of the Russian war in 1853. With a view to enable the reader to judge for himself of the accuracy of this statement, and to collect such indications of the future as are possible from the observation of proximate antecedents, the following table has been prepared, exhibiting the wars and quarrels in which Great Britain has been involved from 1815 to the present time, as well as the wars and principal insurrections and revolutions which have disturbed the peace of the Continent within the same period.

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British troops continue to occupy Revolutionary movements in France.

Ships equipped to assist the

revolted colonies of Spain.

several Continental States.

1817.

War in India.

British troops continue to occupy
France.

Assistance to the revolted colonies
of Spain.

War between Spain and her
American colonies.

Invasion of Monte Video by
Portugal.

Insurrections in Spain.

Revolutionary movements in
Germany and Sweden.

Army of occupation in France,

history. If we compare one century with another, we shall find that wars have been becoming less frequent; and now so clearly is the movement marked, that until the late commencement of hostilities (with Russia) we had remained at peace for nearly forty years; a circumstance unparalleled not only in the history of our own country, but also in the history of every other country which has been important enough to play a leading part in the history of the world. In the middle ages there was never a week without war. At the present moment war is deemed a rare and singular occurrence.'-Buckle's History of Civilization, vol. i. p. 173.

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