PRICES, HISTORY OF.* The materials for a satisfactory history of the course of prices in ancient times do not exist; even in mediaval times, though records are more abundant, they lack the regularity and continuity which characterise modern records; and, further, the available records do not supply the facts of price variation for any wide range, even of important commodities, till comparatively recent times. In the scattered notices of prices with which we are obliged to be content over considerable periods of history there may be preserved for us, not in every case an average price of the article concerned, but the price under more or less exceptional circumstances, and it is therefore necessary to accept with due reserve the conclusions which may be drawn from the recorded facts. The most abundant records are those relating to corn prices.

At the end of the 5th century B.C. the medimnus of wheat at Athens cost 3 drachmas, while 5 drachmas was a common price in the time of Demosthenes. Other information on the price of wheat in Greece is obtained from a statement of Plutarch, according to which the medimnus cost one drachma in the time of Solon. In Plutarch's own time the same quantity cost four times as much. In Sicily, when Verres was prætor (ca. 70 B.C.), 12 to 18 sesterces the medimnus was the price of wheat, while the higher of these prices was esteemed low at Rome in the time of Nero. Barley, in Athens, was worth about two-thirds as much as wheat, but in Sicily and Northern Italy its price did not exceed the half of that of wheat. The price of an ox varied, during the period of greatest Greek prosperity (ca. 400 B.C.), from 50 to 100 drachmas, while one-fifth of these amounts will give the variation of the price of a sheep. The comparison of the rates paid for the hire of free labour with the prices quoted for corn, gives the result that in ancient Greece a bushel of wheat might be bought with the wages of two to four days' work, according as the work was more or less skilled. In Italy wages were lower as measured in corn, at any rate in the time of Cicero, who quotes a rate at which more than five days' labour would be needed to earn the price of a bushel of wheat.

The most important record of prices in ancient times is the edict of Diocletian de pretiis rerum venalium of the year 301 A. D., which fixes maximum prices for goods and for labour. The interpretation of these prices into their modern equivalents is not free from difficulty. It would, however, appear that the Roman pound of gold is to be reckoned as equivalent to 50,000 denarii (Lepaulle). or 10

denarii equivalent to 1 grain of gold or two pence sterling approximately. Using this equivalence, the following are a few sample prices from the edict. The price of wheat is not given, but it may, perhaps, be taken at about double that of millet.

Prices from Diocletian's Edict A.D. 301.

In regard to wages, the daily rates prescribed vary from 4d. for a shepherd and 5d. for other country labour, to 10d. for a smith, and considerably higher rates for painters, etc.; to all these payments must be added food. The tailor was to get 8d. to 10d. for making a cloak, the schoolmaster 10d. per month for each boy.

It will be seen by comparison with

the records of much later times that the level of prices indicated for the beginning of the 4th century was higher than that of succeeding centuries, and that prices did not rise above this level till quite modern times.

The material for price-history in the middle ages is enormously more abundant than for the times dealt with so far. The course of the prices of wheat and other grains and of the principal kinds of meat can be followed with tolerable continuity in several countries. The records are not, however, in general, sufficiently abundant and continuous to ensure that the averages deduced from them are truly representative prices, though it is probable that the larger fluctuations of price can be followed accurately enough. The severity of the fluctuations of prices with the seasons, which is abundantly proved by numerous records, causes solitary records of price to be assigned a weight far inferior to that which would be due to them had the seasonal fluctuations been known to be, as a rule, not extreme.

For the history of prices in England from the year 1259 onwards, the unequalled collection of records published by the late Professor Thorold ROGERS supplies invaluable material. Rogers found that the grouping of the prices which best brought out the principal movements was that shown in the table which follows. The first 140 years-to 1400 — he considered together for many purposes, but the great plague in the middle of the 14th century produced a marked change, especially in the condition of the poorer classes. During the 140 years following 1400, all kinds of grain, peas excepted, were cheaper than in the second half of the 14th century. Meat became somewhat dearer, while wages maintain the advance of the preceding period and improve further. All this is in very striking contrast with the

fourth period, a period of greatly enhanced prices of commodities and but an inadequate rise of wages. The year 1540 is not the beginning of the rise, which for most commodities occurred between 1545 and 1550. The movement of prices at this time is of such importance that we venture to illustrate it in detail by directing attention to the table constructed by Rogers to show the ratios of increase in price of various important groups of articles. Ratio (to unity) of rise of price shown by comparison of 1541-82 with 1401-1540. VII. Building materi

I. Live stock and poultry

2.62

II. Grain

of all

als and nails 1.71 VIII. Metals

IX. Linen

X. Clothing XI. Paper and parchment

XII. Foreign

1.88 2.08 2.12

1.50

pro1.60 duce, Western 2.03 1.62 XIII. Foreign produce, Indian 1.88

V. Fish. VI. Fuel. : 1-71

The contrast between the rise of 50 per cent in wages after the Black Death, with but little rise in the prices of the prime necessaries of life, and the 60 per cent rise here noted at a time when the chief commodities needed by the labouring classes increased by about 150 per cent in their cost, is most striking, and the effect on the welfare of the population of extreme importance. The primary cause of the great increase of most prices must be sought in the debasement of the currency by Henry VIII., for the effects of the new supplies of precious metals afforded by America were not English Average Prices from Roger's

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Prices had

felt in England till after 1560. been rising before the debasement, slowly, but afterwards they rose at a startling rate, wages, as usual, rising most slowly.

Proceeding to examine the later periods, the rise of prices is seen to continue till the middle of the 17th century, after which it moderates greatly. In the sixty years following 1582, the price of various kinds of grain rose, on an average, 122 per cent on the prices of 15411582. Meat, poultry, and provisions rose 81 per cent; the cost of artificial warmth and light increased by 42 per cent; of the principal metals by 34 per cent; building materials 55 per cent; linen fabrics 31 per cent; woollen cloth 30 per cent; while the average rise of thirteen different classes of wages was about 33 per cent. During the following sixty years the prices of commodities advanced more slowly, while wages increased more rapidly. The further increase in grain prices was about 20 per cent only (on the prices of 1583-1642), in provisions about 40 per cent, about the same in artificial warmth and light, in metals about 18 per cent, in building materials 27 per cent, in linen fabrics 9 per cent, in woollen 12 per cent, but in wages 55 per cent. Even then, over the whole period of 120 years, the prices of food advanced fully half as fast again as wages, though most other articles advanced more slowly. The volumes which will contain ROGERS' records for the 18th century are not yet published, so that it is not possible to carry on the record on the same basis after 1702, the "History of Agriculture and Prices."

It must be remembered, in connection with the foregoing table, that, especially in the

earlier periods, the most representative records of wages are quoted by the piece. The timerates selected are believed to represent fairly, so far as so limited a selection can do so, the general direction and amount of the leading

The way in which this table represents the facts will be clear by comparison with the preceding one, and the relation between foodprices and wages at different periods of our country's history is clearly shown by the method of comparison adopted.

For dates subsequent to 1720 the article on WAGES AND PRICES OF COMMODITIES (q.v.) supplies sufficient data to enable the direction of the movements to be traced as effectively as the tables in the present article permit for the earlier periods. The comparison of the figures there given with the tables quoted from Rogers

and the figures of Arthur Young will afford a conspectus of the leading price-movements in this country for seven centuries.

One important consideration must be further noticed, and that is that the money in terms of which prices are quoted underwent many changes during the centuries covered by the records. The relation between the most important of the prices in our tables and silver, as summarised by TOOKE and NEWMARCH, may serve to sufficiently indicate the course which prices expressed in silver would take. The summary is based on the records of numerous authorities, and is given as applying to France as well as to England. It is as follows:

(1) "That prior to about the year 1350, the average annual price of wheat per quarter was about four ounces of silver; (2) that from 1350 to about 1520 the price was considerably lower; and during the larger part of the interval was not more than two ounces of silver; (3) that from 1520 to 1560 the irregularities of the coinage in England, and to a great extent in France, render it exceedingly difficult to trace the course with accuracy; (4) that all the evidence coincides in showing that the first great rise of prices, both in England and France, was about the year 1570; (5) that from 1570 to 1640 the average annual price during a large part of the interval was equal to from six to seven ounces of silver, or equal to a rise of 200 per cent as compared with the prices prior to 1520; (6) that after the culminating point of 1640, prices somewhat declined during the sixty years to 1700; and declined somewhat more between 1700 and 1750; but the decline during these later fifty years was certainly occasioned, not by a rise in the value of silver, but by a fall, in consequence of abundance in the price of corn; (7) that subsequent to 1750 prices of wheat considerably advanced, in consequence of unfavourable seasons, and the interruption of war."

As the purpose of the present article is not to attempt to be exhaustive, which is forbidden by limits of space, but to give a brief sketch of the general course of leading prices, it is not necessary to add the table of the silver contents of our coinage at different periods, since the above extract sufficiently describes the main movements of the price of wheat, thus giving, with the assistance of the tables of prices already quoted, the general features of the relation between silver and other principal commodities in the important periods of English price history.

For the prices of the last century, the statis ticians who have constructed INDEX NUMBERS of general prices, have provided tables of great fulness, and also summaries of the movements of important groups of prices. The tables from which JEVONS constructed his index numbers provide such records from 1782; and Mr. Sauerbeck supplies other tables for prices from 1818 onwards. The index numbers them.

selves provide the most useful summary of price movements for practical purposes. Briefly indicated they show that, from soon after the American war of independence till about 1810, there was a continuous and rapid rise of prices, amounting to over 80 per cent of the prices of 1786-89. From that point a fall, at first fluctuating, but, after the resumption of specie payments, rapid, set in. The general trend of prices since that time has been, first downward to about 1848-50, then upwards till 1873, since which time prices have again tended downwards with great persistence. These larger movements have been interrupted by the fluctuations connected with the commercial crises occurring at about decennial intervals during the century. The point reached in the downward movement of the first half of the century was some 25 per cent lower than that from which we began to trace the movement, just before the French revolution.

The sub

sequent rise amounted to nearly 50 per cent from the low level then reached, and since 1873 a fall of nearly 45 per cent on the prices then ruling has been recorded, leaving present prices considerably below the level of 1850.

For the deviations in the movements of particular prices from this general course, reference must be made to the tables employed in constructing one or other of the leading index numbers. At the end of this article will be found a summary table of the principal movements in the best known index numbers.

For a general view of French prices, we shall refer to the admirable work of the Vicomte d'Avenel, who has collected a greater mass of information on this subject than any other writer. From his work the following table, arranged as nearly as possible so as to permit of convenient comparison with the English records given above, is derived.

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Rye is generally quoted at about three-fourths the price of wheat.

For German prices in the middle ages we refer to Lamprecht. The values of corn, labour, etc., are expressed in grammes of silver (1 oz. troy=31-17 grammes nearly).

In the 9th century, ordinary labour received, as daily wages, the value of 0.83 grammes of silver, while the day's food is estimated to cost 0.75 grammes. In the 13th century the malter (a measure varying in different localities) of wheat was worth 75.9 grammes of silver; in the 14th, it rises from 43 to 68 grammes, sinking to 30 3 grammes in the first half of the 15th century. We have also the following comparison between the price of a malter of rye and the daily wages of common labour :Prices in Germany.

Period.

3.33