is a necessary corollary of the preceding position, but needs especial mention, because the use of the geometric mean has recently been advocated. To use it, however, not merely would run counter to the unvarying conviction of Congress that every major fraction gives a valid claim to another seat, it would also result in defeating the main object of the Constitution, which is to hold the scales even between the small and the large states. For the use of the geometric mean inevitably favors the small state. If it were necessary to favor either group, the large states might be entitled to more consideration in the House, because the small states are favored in the Senate. But, fortunately, there is no need to favor either.

As a question of pure mathematical theory, apart from all consideration of motive and from all practical arguments about the judgment of Congress, I find no unanimity of expert opinion in favor of the geometric mean. I have laid the problem before two meetings of the Mathematical Club at Cornell University, and, although no vote was taken, I inferred from the discussion that there was a preponderance of opinion in favor of the arithmetic mean. Thus the theoretical arguments of statists and mathematicians point to the same conclusion to which Congress had already been brought by other considerations and establish my thesis, that the method of major fractions is the correct and constitutional method of apportionment.

The House of Representatives is now more than six times its size before the first census and four times its size immediately after that. Within the half century since the only law passed with a design to check its growth was last put in force, it has increased by more than four fifths. While it has been thus expanding, no similar change, I believe, has occurred in any other representative assembly in this or any other country, with perhaps the exception of the lower House in Austria, where the conditions are unique.

If its present rate of growth should continue for another century, the House would include about 1,400 members. Such an expansion is unlikely and perhaps in the interest of efficiency the increase ought soon to slacken or to stop. From this point of view the change made in 1911 gains new importance. It is now possible for Congress to prescribe, in advance of an approaching census, how many members the House shall contain, to ask the Secretary of Commerce to prepare a table apportioning just that

number in accordance with the method of major fractions, and to report the result to Congress or to announce it by executive proclamation. The experiment which was tried in 1850 and 1860 and which then failed, partly because of inherent defects of method which have since been overcome, and partly because of problems, no longer important, which arose out of the rapid admission of new states and the absence of many members during the Civil War, can now be repeated with more chance of success. As the House is larger by four fifths than it was in 1856 and rapidly growing, the arguments against further increase are stronger.

With a firm grasp of the elements of the problem and a century of experience revealing what Congress regards as the essentials of a sound method, the chance of meeting the conditions are better. Ere long the pressure of opinion within or without the halls of Congress is likely to result in a renewal of the effort to fix the size of the House unalterably. If that effort is made, the removal of the technical difficulties to which your attention has been called this evening will have smoothed the path toward success and have made it more likely that when the change is again introduced it will be permanent.

PROBABLE CHANGES IN THE FOREIGN TRADE OF THE UNITED STATES RESULTING FROM THE EUROPEAN WAR

By EMORY R. JOHNSON

The University of Pennsylvania

International commerce is subject to world-wide competition, and the success achieved by any country in foreign trade depends upon the four well-known factors of efficiency in production, skilful methods of merchandising, adequate international banking facilities, and economical means of transportation by land and sea.

The prerequisite of a large trade with foreign countries is diversification and efficiency in production, and this, in turn, is the result of a territorial division of labor and industry that enables each section of the country to engage in those activities for which it is best equipped as regards climate, resources, and labor supply. It is when the productive energies of a country are so organized that all the various resources are intelligently utilized, and that labor and capital are applied where they will produce the best results, that an annual output of maximum volume may be secured at a minimum unit cost.

To enable a country as large as the United States to engage, with all its resources and energies, in industrial competition with other countries and sections of the world, its domestic industries and its foreign trade must be served by adequate and economical means of transportation by land and sea. The country as a whole needs to be supplied with railways, such inland waterways as fulfill present-day transportation requirements need to be improved or provided, and the rail and water routes need to be so coördinated and their management and use so regulated as to make it possible for all parts of the country capable of settlement and development to engage, so far as their natural resources permit, in the production of those commodities that the country can profitably exchange for the foods, materials, and wares of other countries.

It seems important, in discussing the probable effects of the European War upon the foreign commerce of the United States, to emphasize the fact (here briefly stated because it is a commonplace with economists) that neither a larger opportunity to trade abroad, nor the development of ocean transportation and international banking facilities will necessarily be followed by a large

growth in the country's foreign commerce. The attainment of absolute and relative efficiency in production should be kept in view by business men and by the government in plans made to secure for the United States the commercial advantages obtainable as a result of the European War.

It is evident that the war has begun to change the attitude of business men and the policy of the government towards foreign trade. There is a greater realization of the importance of foreign commerce and a clearer appreciation of some of the requirements to be met in securing and holding a larger foreign commerce. This change in the attitude of the American people towards trade with other countries is, in part, a result of certain purely temporary effects of the war. The unprecedented opportunity afforded American producers by the sudden outbreak of a war involving the countries which carry on the major share of the world's international commerce, the large increase in the exports and imports of the United States and the consequent profits from this greater trade, and the rapid increase in the output of foods, materials, and manufactures to meet the abnormal foreign demand gave the people of this country the greatest object lesson they have ever had concerning the possibilities of foreign trade and the ability of American industries to meet the demands of foreign buyers.1

The experiences of the past year have also given business men and public officials of the United States a forceful demonstration of the simple economic truth that a large increase in the volume of exports can not long continue without a corresponding increase in imports. For several months the balance of trade has been so "favorable" as seriously to hamper the commerce of the United States with other countries.

The fact has also been brought home to the people of the United States that the market for American goods in foreign countries is limited by the ability of foreign buyers to secure the means of

'It is not deemed necessary in this paper to present a statistical analysis of the effects of the war upon the export and import trade during the year ending June 30, 1915. Such an analysis has been made in an article published in Modern Business Supplement, 3d quarter, 1915, issued by the Alexander Hamilton Institute, New York City. Dr. G. G. Huebner in a paper read before the Academy of Political Science in the city of New York and published in its Proceedings has pointed out statistically the changes that the war caused in the foreign commerce during the fiscal year 1914-15. The publications of the United States Bureau of Foreign and Domestic Commerce contain detailed statistics of the foreign commerce of the United States.

payment for the commodities they may desire to purchase. Although South American countries were unable to purchase commodities in Europe, they did not and could not buy more largely in the United States, because their financial dependence upon Europe was so great that the war caused a serious disturbance of financial conditions in South America and greatly reduced the purchasing power of the people of that continent. American producers not being disposed to render South American countries the financial assistance they had been receiving from Europe, those countries were unable to maintain their normal industrial activity or their usual volume of foreign trade.

Another lesson that the European War has already taught American producers is the need of a greater diversification of the industries in this country, and the use, for industrial purposes, of some important materials and resources that are now wasted or unused. The textile industries and other lines of production have, in the past, been to a large extent dependent upon foreign supplies of dyes and chemicals. Chemists say that these dyes and chemicals can be manufactured in the United States as well as they are made abroad, although temporarily at a higher cost than foreigners can furnish the products. It is said that a large initial investment of capital is necessary to establish and maintain a plant for the manufacture of dyes. The present duties on coaltar products other than dyes are ten per cent ad valorem and are thirty per cent on coal-tar dyes, but these duties are said by chemists and manufacturers to be too low to give necessary protection against foreign competition. Apparently, it would be well to afford adequate temporary protection to dyes of various kinds during the early years of their manufacture in this country.

One of the recognized limitations upon the development of foreign markets has been the ineffective merchandising methods followed by American exporters. In spite of a long continued campaign as to the necessity of the adoption by American exporters of the methods employed by Europeans in the sale of goods in foreign markets, only a few of the large concerns, like the Standard Oil Company, the United States Steel Corporation, and some others have found it advisable to adopt the methods which experience seems to have proven necessary to follow in order to sell American goods in South American and other foreign countries successfully in competition with foreign commerce.

The European War has, however, so impressed the business men