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On the subject of workmen's compensation is to be noted Digest of Workmen's Compensation and Insurance Laws in the United States (Oct., 1913), issued by the Workmen's Compensation Publicity Bureau (80 Maiden Lane, New York City). This digest is presented in convenient tabular form, comparing, under topics, the statutes in the several states. The bureau has also printed a text with analytical introduction of workmen's compensation laws in nineteen states, which are supplied in sets for $2.

The December, 1913, issue of the "American Labor Legislation Review" (vol. 3, no. 4) is devoted to Administration of Labor Laws. This contains chapters on Progressive Tendencies in Labor Law Administration in America, Scientific Standards, Diversity of Enforcement, Duties and Organization of Departments, and Directory of State Bodies Administering Labor Laws. Under the latter heading separate classifications are given for bureaus of labor and factory statistics, workmen's compensation commissions, and minimum wage commissions.

The H. W. Wilson Company has recently published a pamphlet in the Abridged Debaters' Handbook Series entitled Selected Articles on Minimum Wage, compiled by Mary K. Reely (1918, pp. 48). This includes briefs of arguments in the affirmative and negative, a 4-page bibliography, and 30 pages of reprints of articles.

Further information in regard to English experience may be found in a pamphlet A Consideration of the Minimum Wage, published by the Department of Social Economics of the London Municipal Society (2 Bridge St., Westminster, S. W., Jan. 1914, pp. 12).

The British Board of Trade has published Report on Strikes and Lockouts, and Conciliation and Arbitration Boards in the United Kingdom in 1912, with comparative statistics (1913, pp. lvi, 160). The principal strike in 1912 was that in the coal-mining industry.

The Department of Labour of Canada has published an exhaustive Report on Strikes and Lockouts in Canada from 1901 to 1912 (Ottawa, 1918, pp. 279). It is estimated that the annual loss to the country on account of strikes is about $1,500,000, and that about 3 per cent of the wage-earners of the country are annually involved. Some comparison is made with other countries. The statistical tables are illustrated with charts.

Money, Prices, Credit, and Banking

THE "EQUATION OF EXCHANGE" FOR 1913, AND FORECAST. Pending complete data for the equation of exchange for 1913, to be used for an

article in the June number of this REVIEW, the following preliminary figures are presented, based on such data as are at present available.1

The two sides of the equation of exchange thus calculated agree within about 9 per cent, which discrepancy is the largest thus far found; this is due doubtless to the paucity of the data-particularly for the volume of trade. The discrepancy has, as usual, been eliminated by arbitrary adjustments of the original estimates for the six factors. The largest adjustment was, of course, in the figure for the volume of trade which was reduced by 4 per cent.

The results, corrected and expressed in billions of dollars, are: Circ. of money (40) + Circ. of checks (410)

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Value goods bought (450)

Trade Scale prices = 435 X 1032 per cent

Comparing these figures with those calculated for 1912, we find remarkably little change. The most striking change is the reduction in the activity of the check circulation. In 1913 deposits subject to check turned over 50 times as against 53 in 1912. The total check circulation in 1913 was $410,000,000,0002 as against $436,000,000,000 in 1912. The volume of trade in 1913 is found to be $435,000,000,000

'The figures for money in circulation, deposits subject to check, and their velocities, are calculated in the same way as in previous years. The index number or price level was calculated from Bradstreet's index number for commodities and the index number of prices of stocks as given in Babson's desk sheet. The figure for the volume of trade is based on railroad gross earnings and shares traded in on the New York Stock Exchange, the former for ten months, the latter for eleven months. The index number for prices is based on Bradstreet's index number for commodity prices and the index number of 32 active stocks as given in Babson's desk sheet. The stock figures (both the index number figure and the volume of trade figures) are "weighted" one tenth as heavily as the other data combined with them.

'It is interesting to note that the American Bankers' Association through its committee on clearing houses is endeavoring to gather statistics, from the individual banks, of the checks charged by them weekly. This will afford a much better barometer for gauging the check business and activity than that here used, which is based on the clearings in and out of New York City. The preliminary results of their calculation for 1913, as reported in the papers, indicate a volume and activity of check circulation only slightly different (ten or fifteen per cent greater) from those here calculated. This is interesting in view of the meagerness of the data on which both estimates are based. While I believe my estimates are nearly correct relatively, i.e., so far as year to year comparisons are concerned, it would not be surprising if they were found to contain a considerable absolute error. It is to be hoped that with the new banking system we shall get more complete statistics of check circulation; and also that, as stated in my article last June, Congress will enable the Department of Commerce to resume and improve its statistics of internal

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units as against 450,000,000,000 units in 1912. Prices fell from 105.3 per cent to 103.5 per cent of the level of 1909, the assumed base year. The quantity of money in circulation (i.e., outside of the United States Treasury and the banks) and the deposits subject to check prove to be very slightly greater than in 1912.

These figures confirm the prevailing impression that the year 1912 was a year of contraction rather than expansion. The shrinkage in activity of bank accounts is characteristic of a period of liquidation following a crisis or a tight money market.

It would not be exaggerating to say that from the middle of 1913 to the present we have been passing through a mild crisis with liquidation still going on. The liquidation may be expected to be sufficiently complete soon to justify beginning a new period of expansion. It seems reasonable to expect that the year 1914 will then show a resumption in the growth of most of the factors in the equation of exchange.

The tariff act, it is true, may operate to produce a so-called "unfavorable" balance of trade and to cause an export of gold, which would tend to lower the general level of prices in the United States. The currency act on the other hand seems likely to stimulate bank deposits and so tend to raise prices. In view of these and other considerations, it does not seem likely that the general scale of prices in 1914 will vary materially from the level of 1913.

IRVING FISHER.

The Sources of Rural Credit and the Extent of Rural Indebtedness, by George K. Holmes (Reprinted from the Bulletin of Economic and Social Intelligence, vols. 28 and 29, Rome, International Institute of Agriculture, 1913, pp. 46; published also in French) is a useful summary of much of the very incomplete data at present available on the subject of agricultural credit facilities and needs in the United States.

Part I is a compilation, largely statistical, of the chief facts concerning the character and extent of farm mortgage indebtedness in the United States before 1912. Totals are summarized in tabular form for different geographical sections. On the basis of very incomplete data the author estimates for 1910 the probable amount of the agricultural debt of the farmers of the United States at $5,000,000,000, exclusive of the comparatively small debt of agricultural laborers. commerce, We shall then be able to reach a closer approximation to the truth as to the statistics of the equation of exchange.

1

'Each "unit" of trade is any quantum of goods worth one dollar reckoned at the prices of 1909, the assumed base year,

This figure does not include "credit that is given by the seller to the purchaser of real estate, which is usually secured by the return of a mortgage," and which Mr. Holmes claims "makes no demand on the credit market and consists of nothing more than the exchange of legal documents a deed for a mortgage and usually some unborrowed cash" (p. 3). Many of the important constitutents of the estimate are necessarily little more than intelligent guesses, and the margin of probable error is large.

Part II consists chiefly of a summary and discussion of the results of the investigation concerning agricultural credit made by the Secretary of Agriculture in 1912. A schedule of questions was sent "to 9,000 persons in all of the rural counties of the United States. There were about 8,000 country bankers, about the same number of prominent farmers, and also about the same number of country merchants and men of other occupations taken from the list in use by the Bureau of Statistics to collect monthly reports of the prices of farm commodities" (p. 19).

In reply to a question as to the ability of farmers to give good security or endorsed notes for loans, it appears that in the opinion of the correspondents an average of 77 per cent of the farm owners and 46 per cent of the farm tenants are able to give such security. With reference to the question concerning the deficiency of credit for shorttime loans, 48 per cent of the correspondents report no deficiency of credit for owners and 47 per cent report no deficiency for tenants. Where a deficiency of credit is reported it is estimated on the average that 36 per cent of the owners and 37 per cent of the tenants were unable to get credit. For long-time loans the resulting percentages were very similar. Among those able to give good security or endorsed note, the average estimate of those who replied was that 74 per cent of the owners and 73 per cent of the tenants could profitably and conservatively use further credit, and that of those who could so use it 32 per cent of the owners and 33 per cent of the tenants would so use it if it were available.

Other topics covered by the investigation were: the extent to which liens are placed upon cotton and other crops; the use of warehouse receipts as security for loans; the extent to which credit is obtained from different sources classified as local banks, neighbors, individual lenders in near-by cities, loan agents for outside capital, local merchants, and "unspecified sources"; the cost of borrowing covering the items of interest, commissions, abstracts or search of titles, and legal papers. On all of these subjects widely different results are reported from different sections. The author does not tell us to what

extent the testimony of different people in the same neighborhood is conflicting on the different topics.

E. W. KEMMERER.

The first part of the report of the two commissions sent abroad last year to make an investigation of Agricultural Coöperation and Rural Credit in Europe has been promptly issued (Sen. Doc. No. 214, 63 Cong., 1 Sess., 1913, pp. 916). This volume contains the evidence gathered at conferences and by "Juries of Inquiry." It is announced that part 2 will be published later and that a full bibliography is being prepared which will be available for the use of students. The material in the present report is arranged by countries and has been intelligently edited so as to serve readers interested in the topics covered.

Further pamphlet literature on the subject of agricultural credit to be noted are The German Farmer and Coöperation, a report of F. J. H. von Engelken, the Florida member of the American Commission (Sen. Doc. No. 201, 63 Cong., 1 Sess., 1913, pp. 18); Some Methods of Financing the Farmer, by Gordon Jones, also a member of the commission (Sen. Doc. No. 212, 63 Cong., 1 Sess., pp. 15); Third Annual Report of the Jewish Farmers' Coöperative Credit Unions (New York: Jewish Agricultural and Industrial Aid Society, 174 Second Ave., pp. 4); Die Landschaft, by David Lubin, published by the International Institute of Agriculture (pp. 24); and Coöperative Rural Credit in Canada, a letter by Mr. Lubin on the recommendations of the Saskatchewan Commission (International Institute of Agriculture, Nov. 17, 1913, pp. 8).

Beginning with December 1, 1913, the daily statement of the federal Treasury has contained a "Paper Currency Statement," in which the outstanding amounts of all kinds of paper money in circulation are stated.

A subcommittee, Hon. Robert J. Bulkley, chairman, of the House Committee on Banking and Currency is taking testimony on the subject of rural credits, which is being published in a series of hearings.

The Department of Agricultural Economics of the University of Wisconsin is making a study of farm credit in Wisconsin. The plan is to investigate carefully the facts in at least two counties; one in an old settled district; the other in a newly settled district. The inquiry is being made by personal canvass of places of business where the farmer receives credit, a statistical study of all recorded evidences of credit, and, to a limited extent, a canvass of the farmers themselves. The work is in charge of Professor B. H. Hibbard,

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