Tea

Veal

Vinegar

Molasses

Beef, salt

TABLE 3.- COMPUTATION OF SERIES INCLUDING THE OMITTED FIFTEEN ARTICLES.

Beans, dry

Fish, fresh

1893 104.8 100.1

100.0

99.5 100.6

100 3

105.0

100.1

103.4

99.9

107.0

98.4

115.6

108.7 103.1

1894 103.3 98.7

98.7

99.8 100.3

98.9

102.8 100.4

101.5

97.8

105.8 99.0

100.9

103.4

100.8

101.7 98.5

98.5

98.9 99.0

99.6 100.5 99.8

98.9

98.7

97.4 98.8

94.2

99.2 98.8

98.8

99.5

97.2 98.7

99.8 92.7 100.2

97.5

98.7

88.6

96.7

86.8

95.5

96.4

97.9 84.3

97.3 95.9

97.9

102.1 95.9 100.5 98.8

100.4

95.4

101.7

86.3

99.1

97.8

103.2 99.7 100.2

103.7

1903 89.3 106.0 114.9

99.1

105.8 115.5 98.9

105 3

125.0

104.5

98.2 102.2 101.3 106.1 99.5 102.1 116.0 105.0 102.8 114.7 104.4 103.8 108.8 107.3 108.4 112.6 104.0 108.3 116.8 107.9 111.7 114.1 104.4 107.9 116.3 109.9 113.8 117.8 105.3 110.8 115.2 116.2 116.8 107.7 114.1 118.8 120.6

100.2 102.6

99.5 102.4

85.1 101.8

99.8

The old series, the new series covering 15 articles, and my own series covering the omitted 15 articles have been brought together in Table 4 and graphically presented on Chart II. It will be readily seen that just at the time (about 1897) when the new series begins to rise above the old one, the series representing the

90

1890 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1900 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 is

TABLE 4.-COMPARISON OF THE NEW SERIES, THE OLD SERIES, AND THE SERIES

REPRESENTING THE OMITTED FIFTEEN ARTICLES.

15 omitted articles begins to fall below it, and at about the same rate. The evidence, therefore, would appear to be convincing that the "one-sided selection of articles" is responsible for the difference between the new and old series.

What, then, are we to say with regard to the representativeness of the new series? We have, on the one hand, the statement of the Bureau of Labor that "these fifteen articles (included in the new series) represent approximately two thirds of the expenditures for food by the average workingman's family." We know, on the other hand, that the information on which this statement was based was gathered in 1901, and in a population so changing in composition as is ours, it is at least a question whether the habits of living have remained relatively the same over this period of ten or more years. It would certainly be strange if the workman's diet remained unchanged when substitutes for the increasingly costly articles were to be had at prices that had not risen. But even waiving these matters, we should have to face the fact that materials representing one third of the food expenditures of laborers were to be found on the list of "omitted articles." These considerations would seem to lead us almost inevitably to the conclusion that the new series is not an altogether accurate measure of the relative prices of the food consumed by laborers.

If this reasoning be just, it would seem that Dr. Rubinow's results, based as they are upon the newer and more radical series, exaggerate somewhat the gloom of the situation. To stop, however, with simply a criticism of Dr. Rubinow's results would accomplish little. Can we not go farther and construct from existing data a series which shall be somewhat more representative? I think this can be done. From 1890 to 1907 we have the old series computed by the Bureau of Labor which, in the light of the above discoveries, and also from the very fact that it represents 30 articles instead of 15, would seem more representative of the facts. But what of the years subsequent to 1907? Turning to Chart III we note that the series covering the omitted articles, after dropping well below both the others, by 1902 runs a course parallel to them as far as we have the data. What general in

TABLE 5. COMPUTATION OF RECENT REAL WAGE INDEX SERIES.

weekly earnings

prices

Purchasing power of wages as measured by retail prices of food

TABLE 6. COMPARISON OF REVISED RESULTS WITH DR. RUBINOW'S.

7

Chart

851

1890 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1900 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 '09 '10 '11 '12